Recently, the spot freight prices of popular routes have fallen, and after two years of "super peak season", the shipping industry seems to have ushered in a turning point from prosperity to decline. 

On the one hand, domestic export orders have decreased year-on-year; On the other hand, the supply chain of the centralized transportation market is gradually restored, and the super cycle caused by the structural mismatch between supply and demand may be over. The previous crazy scene of "grabbing all shipping spaces and boxes" has ended.

According to the data of Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on July 8, China's export container freight index (CCFI) was 3232.18 points, down 1.2% from the previous period (July 1), and the prices of all popular routes fell together. Among them, European routes fell by 2% over the previous period, and European freight rates have fallen by 14% since February; The US West Route decreased by 2.5% compared with the previous period, and the US east route decreased by 1.7% compared with the previous period.

Does this mean that the "inflection point" of the centralized transportation industry has come? In this regard, Securities Daily quoted Sullivan's executive director for Greater China to Weili analysis that CCFI is still stable on the whole. With the domestic epidemic prevention and Control Bureau facing a good situation, the transportation demand of relevant commodities has resumed, adding to the uncertainty of U.S. port supply and commodity demand, it is expected that the shipping price will remain high and volatile in the short term.

From this year's perspective, the overall freight rate of the centralized transportation market remains relatively high. The intensification of inflation in the United States may affect residents' daily consumption habits and bring changes in commodity demand and supply. At the same time, consumers' shopping methods are gradually changing, and more people are turning to online platforms. The expansion of cross-border e-commerce may further promote the demand growth of the centralized transportation market.

The latest World Container Comprehensive Freight Index (WCI) released by Drewry, an international shipping research and consulting organization, shows that the spot freight from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 4%, that is, US $300 to US $7652 /feu, a decrease of 16% over the same period in 2021; The spot freight from Shanghai to New York fell 2% to $10154 /feu, down 13% from the same period in 2021. Compared with the highest shipping price of the U.S. route last year, which was $20000, the price has been halved.

Throughout the first half of 2022, the price of centralized transportation from Shanghai to Europe and the United States showed a negative decline, and even the spot freight rate has fallen below the long-term association price. According to market rumors, the shipper has proposed to renegotiate the long-term association price.

The long-term agreement price was signed at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. At that time, the market was hot and the freight rate was high. For example, last year, the shipping price of American routes was up to $20000 /feu, but it is about to fall below $7000 /feu, and European routes are also expected to fall below $10000 /feu, which has been lower than the long-term agreement price previously signed by some shippers.

As for the fluctuation and decline of container shipping prices, the report of Founder futures pointed out that "the global inflation is high, the European and American central banks have accelerated the pace of monetary tightening, and the marginal growth rate of demand has slowed down sharply, or even decreased month on month. Many countries around the world have gradually liberalized the full control measures of the epidemic since January, and the ship schedule rate and turnover efficiency have rebounded. With the increase of cabin supply and the significant slowdown of demand growth, the freight rate has continued to fall".

In the face of the decline in shipping prices, international shipping giants began to "withdraw" to reduce effective transport capacity and maintain the stability of shipping prices. At present, the head of the industry is obvious, which has a certain stabilizing effect on freight rates. The three major shipping alliances (2m alliance, ocean alliance and the alliance) currently account for more than 80% of the market share, which can effectively control the supply of transportation capacity to cope with the changes on the demand side. It is more likely that the short-term freight rate will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it may stabilize at a reasonable price in the medium and long term.